Appraisers' Free Forum

Here's an article on using MLS data to chart trends in Excel.
http://appraisalnewsonline.typepad.com/ ... nds--.html

Kat Bryce does a good job of explaining the process.

Thanks Jim!

Kat Bryce does a good job of explaining the process.

I'd say it does a good job of explaining the process of using the software.

That's all it's for, PC. Interpreting the results is the appraiser's job, as is selecting what to model.

I know. I just never realized how much it would be like giving people loaded guns and telling them to go hunt moose.

Some fellow posted on of these average PSF graphs on another forum and asked what people thought. It was interesting to read all these inferences about rising and falling. I stopped posting there or I would have said it looks like Bill Clinton's polygraph. In neither format is there any truth in zig-zag lines.

Most of these graphing tutorials advocate "trying" a regression line; "trying" a polynomial regression line (polyline); and "trying" an exponential regression line to see which one looks the best. There's a dandy bit of education in stats, huh? If one regression doesn't look nice, "try" another. If it doesn't look good on a linear graph, try a log graph.

This tutorial just teaches how to get the data into Excel and work with it, of course. Knowing *how* to work with it is the appraiser's job. Still, you've got to start with the very basics. When the link above was posted on the AI e-mail forum, I was astounded at the number of so-called experienced appraisers who found it to be a truly marvelous revelation. So instruction in the basics is very much needed.

I think that once people get used to the idea that they can download data and wrestle with it, a greater understanding of the strengths (and weakness) of statistics will eventually follow. The article's a good first step.