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Employment and Exports are Issues in Recovery

Discussion of the condition of the general economy. Post links to articles of interest, but do not post copyrighted material which violates fair use.

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Re: Employment and Exports are Issues in Recovery

Postby Denis DeSaix on Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:39 pm

Steve Owen wrote:Contrary to the opinion of the UAW, we have to learn to compete on an international basis. If something can be done better and cheaper somewhere else, then we must do what we can do better and sell them our product and buy from them theirs.


I certainly agree here, and it is a basic principle of free market economics. The way to create wealth is to produce domestically those items that are more efficiently produced domestically and purchase from abroad those items which are produced abroad more efficiently.
The system is not "perfect" (no system is) but does allocate production to those who can maximize efficiency (i.e., profits). What we are seeing in the US' current political climate is a step toward fascism where the means of production remain in the hands of private parties but what is produced (what, how and sold at what price) is dictated by the government. A perfect real estate example is rent control.


Edd- to your question about the effect on real estate and wage earnings, the simple answer is that a "re-set" of pricing has to occur. This may mean that some consumables go up in price and some go down. Housing is becoming more affordable as housing prices drop. Housing prices went up due to poor regulatory oversight and artificially low rates for borrowing money. I'd argue that even without better regulatory oversight, had the cost of money reflected the fair market price (no exotic lending gimmicks), we would not have experienced the real estate collapse to the extent we did and the regulatory shortfalls would have been manageable.
Most economists agree that it was the consumer's ability to draw on home equity which spurred consumer spending to the level we achieved in 2004-2007. If the equity was based on artificially low borrowing costs, that equity would get reset once the borrowing costs were reset to reflect actual market costs. Once the price of purchasing a house are re-aligned with the true costs of financing the house, the real estate market will pick-up (and rightly so based on sustainable economic activity and not artificial economic stimulus).
If we want to create a competitive economy in a global arena, then we are going to have to become good or better than others at producing goods. "Goods" include tangible manufactured goods and less-tangible service goods. I don't think we can mass produce a low-cost car in this country cheaper than the Chinese, Koreans, or Mexicans. So why should we compete in that product line? Let them build the cheaper car and let us benefit from a lower price. I do think we can produce better intellectual property and services than the Chinese (for now), Koreans and Mexicans, so we should compete in that arena (and others). The world is changing fast: we should be looking forward to capture the markets of the future rather than looking backward to salvage those markets that are in a decline (and we cannot be competitive in anyway).
Focusing our resources on those products/services where we have a competitive edge will also provide a sufficient level of auxiliary wage-positions for support/service positions. There is no entitlement to a $100k salary in this country. All that should be available is the opportunity to compete and succeed. 8)
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Re: Employment and Exports are Issues in Recovery

Postby Mentor on Fri Oct 30, 2009 1:51 pm

The spirit of Nafta, international trade in general, is what has saved us from decades of a stagflationary scenario.

Our steady growth in productivity over the last few decades helped put the lid on inflation and ensure our relative prosperity in spite of our insane internal political games of wealth transfer and policy of additional taxation for the most productive individuals and companies.

Productivity growth was achieved by technological advancement, administrative controls to keep workers off porn sites and from playing video games may have helped. But, the fact that freer flowing international trade acted like a heat pump and literally pumped away jobs where our average productivity sucked relative to the foreign alternative. It left behind jobs where we were relatively more productive.

The other side of the coin, our high productive jobs grew due to our ability to export them. Of course, the Chinese & Russians cracked the software and copied intellectual property & even cranked out fake iphones (even as real iphones were made in China?

It is a mathematical fact that numerically, there are fewer high productive jobs than low productive jobs. So, yes, our fat and happy citizenry have had to decide on whether to cut out bowling night for high tech extension courses, whatever. Many found it easier to just vote protectionist party:mrgreen:

Ukraine currency, the Hryvnia (pronounced Grivna), currently exchanges 8 Hryvnia for 1 dollar. My wife bought her son & his wife a renovated apartment overlooking the Black Sea for cash in 2006. The exchange rate was 5 Hryvnia for 1 dollar back then.

Ukrainians were getting the hang of financing real estate and the bubble was in full swing. Many traded up for larger homes (mostly 2+ br apartments), and financed them with mortgages specifying payment in terms of dollars! Now, they are dumping those trade up apartments and homes and crunching whole families into 1 BR apartments. If they are lucky enough to be employed still, their Hryvnia wages don't go nearly as far when covering obligations fixed in terms of dollars.

It is tempting to invest in some of those nicer places on the Black Sea which are dirt cheap now, but I am a bit concerned about the economic and political stability. Americans that piss and moan about how this economic downturn is kicking our ass may not have a clue about how relatively good they have things here. Steve's landscaper appears to have a firm grip on the situation. I say, let's give him a path to citizenship and vote a complainer "off the island" to make room. I want him on the team.
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Re: Employment and Exports are Issues in Recovery

Postby Edd Gillespie on Fri Oct 30, 2009 2:15 pm

Denis DeSaix wrote:
If we want to create a competitive economy in a global arena, then we are going to have to become good or better than others at producing goods. ...Focusing our resources on those products/services where we have a competitive edge will also provide a sufficient level of auxiliary wage-positions for support/service positions. There is no entitlement to a $100k salary in this country. All that should be available is the opportunity to compete and succeed.)


Bingo! Now if we can just get it figured what "good or better" means since cheaper seems to somehow be included in what should be a quality definition. And then we need to figure what goods and services we are not good at, let 'em go global and retool for other stuff that has a future.
Edd “In the real estate economy, there are no guarantees that reason will prevail in a market where emotions run high and the amount of misinformation runs deep.” Jonathan Miller in The Matrix. So what’s an appraiser to do?
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Re: Employment and Exports are Issues in Recovery

Postby Mentor on Fri Oct 30, 2009 2:27 pm

Bingo! Now if we can just get it figured what "good or better" means since cheaper seems to somehow be included in what should be a quality definition. And then we need to figure what goods and services we are not good at, let 'em go global and retool for other stuff that has a future.


Who the heck is the "we" in that statement? The central planners? :WM:

Get them the heck out of the way of anything to do with picking winners and losers. Limit the politicians to sitting back and watching the solutions unfold, rather than allow them to introduce even more market place distortions so they have a shot at taking credit for something when the market participants some how survive and succeed in spite of a new layer of bureaucratic BS to overcome.
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Re: Employment and Exports are Issues in Recovery

Postby Edd Gillespie on Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:03 pm

Mentor wrote:
Bingo! Now if we can just get it figured what "good or better" means since cheaper seems to somehow be included in what should be a quality definition. And then we need to figure what goods and services we are not good at, let 'em go global and retool for other stuff that has a future.


Who the heck is the "we" in that statement? The central planners? :WM:

Get them the heck out of the way of anything to do with picking winners and losers. Limit the politicians to sitting back and watching the solutions unfold, rather than allow them to introduce even more market place distortions so they have a shot at taking credit for something when the market participants some how survive and succeed in spite of a new layer of bureaucratic BS to overcome.


OK. I'll work on that and you work on the rest of the participants playing by the rule of free market. Actually that isn't fair. I'm pretty sure I'm going to end up right where we (you and me) are and you can't speak Chinese. Also, you may learn Chinese a lot faster than I get "them" to change or back off.
Edd “In the real estate economy, there are no guarantees that reason will prevail in a market where emotions run high and the amount of misinformation runs deep.” Jonathan Miller in The Matrix. So what’s an appraiser to do?
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Re: Employment and Exports are Issues in Recovery

Postby Mentor on Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:15 pm

'm pretty sure I'm going to end up right where we (you and me) are and you can't speak Chinese. Also, you may learn Chinese a lot faster than I get "them" to change or back off.


Edd, you stumbled upon what will probably be the next great productivity breakthrough that has a shot at lifting the World up economically. Real time translation devices!

Speech recognition technology is coming along and ready to be rolled out on portable devices. There will be latency issues, but the normal barriers for cross cultural debate are about to come down.

These will truly be interesting times, especially for the countries trying to keep their populations in the dark. Our military budget should be spent on drones laden with ipods, self defense manuals, feminist literature and razor knives for Muslim women :mrgreen: Once Lorena Bobbit's thoughts get translated into Arabic and Farsi, the blood will flow!

A different kind of behea :DANC: ding by militant Muslim feminists
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