Appraisers' Free Forum

Otis wrote:According to the media - good news is NOT NEWS - they only report the bad stuff.

The current efforts to help revive the economy are likely to produce inflation that could be worse than what the country suffered through in the late 1970s, Buffett said.

As for the geniuses from the fed, talk of the economy turning on a dime and shooting up on a sea of printed money is consistent with their past policies. However, I am afraid they have given the economy too many rounds of drinks, and the hangover is now for real, and for a while.

“We are in the eye of the storm,” Gerard Cassidy, a banking analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “The worst is behind us for housing. For commercial real estate and corporate lending, there is still a big dark cloud.”

Steve Owen wrote:Quote of the day:

“We are in the eye of the storm,” Gerard Cassidy, a banking analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “The worst is behind us for housing. For commercial real estate and corporate lending, there is still a big dark cloud.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/business/17bank.html?th&emc=th

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http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/realestate/index.html

General Growth Properties Inc., the country’s second largest mall owner and co-owner of Highland Mall in Austin, has filed for bankruptcy.

The Chicago-based company said it had failed to win more time from its lenders to refinance its debts. The filing lists $29.6 billion in assets and $27.3 billion in debts.

It’s the biggest real estate bankruptcy in history.

<snip>

Some economists expect housing prices to fall another 5 to 10 percent before they hit a bottom; others say that prices could decline by as much as a third.

Steve Owen wrote:Perhaps my original "guess" of six to ten isn't long enough...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/business/economy/29econ.html?th&emc=th

Some economists expect housing prices to fall another 5 to 10 percent before they hit a bottom; others say that prices could decline by as much as a third.

Yeah? Joplin would have a long way to fall... so far, any declines we have had here have been too small to measure in most areas (there are a couple of exceptions).

But, man, I wish I was appraising in Phoenix. What a challenge!

The filing lists $29.6 billion in assets and $27.3 billion in debts.

It’s the biggest real estate bankruptcy in history.

The most significant problem is that "Traffic of Prospective Buyers" is even more depressed (versus May 2008) than the other numbers and remains at 13, a very low level. Improvement in this number will indicate that buyers are coming back and should preceed actual sales growth.

To see where the new problem is always look to where the government is dumping money into next. They recently agreed to spend TARP money on commercial real estate. Why is it scary for bankers and the economy? It's because the charts are only beginning their terrible decline.

The author and the commenters are right. The book is far from finished on the real estate meltdown. The government's getting tapped out and so little has been repaired. Now inflation is on the rise and investors are getting the upper hand and demanding higher rates. Bernake, dumping money from a helicopter is not the answer! Please go back and rewrite your thesis.