Appraisers' Free Forum

http://seekingalpha.com/article/143696-worst-housing-number-in-decades-what-is-the-wall-street-media-smoking?source=email

But, no one beats Wall Street’s big bank analysts at the exceptional skill of being out of touch with reality.

Housing starts at a seasonally adjusted level at only 27% of what they were 4 years ago... and that is just about everywhere. I saw similar numbers for lot sales in my own market.

Another view...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/143698-housing-market-has-clearly-bottomed-for-now?source=email

And. another answer...

The shadow inventory may be as high as the posted inventory. Although this sounds like a conspiracy theory, do the majority of people you know want to stay in their current residence for the next ten years? If they could move, would they? This does not even account for foreclosure sales being withheld from the markets by banks as an attempt to stop price declines.

Housing bottom calls need to address all of these issues for credibility.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/144406-bankruptcies-of-large-u-s-corporations-soar?source=email

Apparently they left a rather large loophole for corporations in their bankruptcy reform.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/147140-this-recession-isn-t-over-now-for-the-hard-part?source=email

Unfortunately, many are making the mistake of applying recent recessionary data to come to the conclusions that we're going to experience an '82, '91 or '02 type of recovery. I believe they are sorely mistaken.

This brings up a new question. Is it possible for housing to stabilize during recessionary influences? In other words, could the housing/credit crisis that started all of this come to an end, but the recession still go on?

I have changed my vote.

I started thinking about it when this was posted.

http://appraisers.freeforums.org/improving-markets-case-schiller-says-so-t5173.html

There has been various other information that made me consider lowering my time frame until inventory has been absorbed and the market becomes more stabilized. Then, I read this:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/152476-has-the-housing-market-hit-bottom?source=email

i thought Johnathon Rose's comment was interesting, which said in part:

We sold in 2005 and have been renting since. When you can get a $1-1.5m home and pay $2000 a month someone (the home owner) is subsidizing your lifestyle to the tun of $5-9000 a month or $60000 a year or more. While you aren't building equity - why pay so much more than you need too. You also have greater flexibility as so many people are tied to particular job markets etc by their home. We plan to buy a foreclosure in 12-18 months or to build a home as supplies and skilled laborers will be bidding so hard for jobs that build costs should be back under $100 per square foot.

If you are considering changing your vote, remember that the issue is on a time line starting with December 2008.

it's going to take a long time for the market to absorb all the extra inventory that's out there. Then, he gave me his guesstimate... ten years before the housing market reaches equilibrium. Now, that was a broad overall estimate for the country as a whole...

The question is when will the overall housing market absorb extra inventory and become stabilized.

Having garnered some experience with the banks while dealing with short-sales & foreclosures...I've changed my vote to 3-5 years (at least).

These idiots don't know what they're doing!!! I'm floored by the total incompetence.

I've seen quite a bit of incompetence myself. But, I have also seen some pretty slick operations on the part of banks unloading problems the former management caused. When I changed my vote, it was to LOWER it, to six to ten... I previously had the next highest category.

Steve Owen wrote:I've seen quite a bit of incompetence myself. But, I have also seen some pretty slick operations on the part of banks unloading problems the former management caused. When I changed my vote, it was to LOWER it, to six to ten... I previously had the next highest category.

I think to some extent it's (recovery) going to have something to do with region. You can have a market savvy team in one region & a completely incompetent team in another.

I like to tell the story of a review appraiser some 1,500 miles away who wanted to argue my opinion of value over a certain property.

"I've been doing this (appraising) for 5 (whole) years."

I asked her age (how 'cad' of me!).

"I'm 23," she responded.

"That's laudable," I responded, "I've been doing this since you were 4."

Cricket's chirping...

Tumbleweed's blowing...

Hello-oo-ooo-oooo-ooooo

(We're screwed, but at least they'll work for much, much less )

Changed it back to ten or fifteen. I could be wrong, but the stuff that is happening just doesn't look like the road to recovery. I'm still waiting for the other (commercial) shoe to drop.

Wow. I hope this guy isn't right... but, am afraid he might be....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/153555-five-reasons-the-market-could-crash-this-fall?source=email

Steve Owen wrote:What kind of job are you considering, Frederick? Just curious.

IRS, Apparently they need CGs to review appraisals for tax purposes.It looks like they might be getting very busy soon. They are going to have to shake money out a lot of people to pay for this Obama Nation. Just thinking ahead.

Smart thinking, Frederick. I had an uncle-in-law who worked for the IRS. It's a career with long term prospects.

Meanwhile,

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/13/business/economy/13fed.html?th&emc=th

The central bank cautioned that the recovery would be slow and that unemployment was likely to remain high for the next year. It reiterated that it would keep its benchmark short-term interest rate at virtually zero for an extended period.

Un huh. Sounds a little bit like whistling past the graveyard to me.

New info...

http://www.koamtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=10931729&Call=Email&Format=HTML

Sort of....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/156269-coming-soon-banking-crisis-of-historic-proportions?source=email

I hope we don't have to compare what happens in 2010 to 1873.

The banking crisis of 1873 started what has been called "The Long Depression". This consisted of a period of rolling recessions that continued for almost 40 years and included additional banking crises in 1893 and 1907.

Maybe I should have put some longer time frames in the voting choices.

Some people obviously think we have hit the bottom.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/158188-s-p-case-shiller-home-price-numbers?source=email

That feeling is far from universal, however.

John Galt:

Keep in mind, even "if" housing prices inch up. They have gone down tremendously and are being proped up by free money (8k credit), historically low interest rates and other government programs. If you think housing is going to start marching right back up, you are in for a rude awakening.