Appraisers' Free Forum

How long... and, how strong?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/02/AR2009090202216.html?wpisrc=newsletter

Welcome back Edd.

Welcome back. Mostly true, Edd. Don't forget to vote. (And, don't forget that the time line starts at the date of the first post. And, don't forget that you can change your vote next year, or the year after.... (That way, we can be sure to look smart in the end.)

Edd Gillespie wrote:This has never been about housing. Housing is a symptom. We are in a trade deficit after a borrowing bubble.

And, don't forget the price inflation bubble caused by various kinds of fraudulent and unethical activity.

You might want to add your comment to this article, Edd. (Copy and paste doesn't take much time, and your comment would fit without much, if any, alteration.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/159977-while-retail-sales-decline-fha-house-sales-soar?source=email#comment-663028

The first two commenters thought that the author is perpetually bearish. I thought he was right on. So, I said:

The author's main point is well taken. Many multiple listing services do not report concessions. And, often those that do have skewed results because real estate agents try to hide things like personal property included in the sale, for various reasons. Depending on the amount of concessions that are typical, the market data is often over reported as to sale price. Whether or not we have reached bottom is debatable from several points, but if the example given in the story is typical in those areas with a lot of excess inventory, then we probably have not. Add to that the shadow inventory of vacant houses not actively on the market and rising unemployment rates. Add to that potential new problems coming from option ARMs and commercial real estate. Add to that the high probability of fraud in some markets. After all is said and done, the bottom for real estate in some hard-hit markets could quite likely be some distance further down.

I run my rabbit traps...
I grow my garden...
I drain the oil from the crankcase and sieve it thru cheesecloth and put it back in
I go thru old razorblades and see if I can get an extra shave or two out of it.

The trot lines are set. I have my sights on a fat doe in the back 40..what more do I need?...work? maybe...maybe not.

Ter Shields wrote:I run my rabbit traps...
I grow my garden...
I drain the oil from the crankcase and sieve it thru cheesecloth and put it back in
I go thru old razorblades and see if I can get an extra shave or two out of it.

The trot lines are set. I have my sights on a fat doe in the back 40..what more do I need?...work? maybe...maybe not.

I too try to reduce fixed costs to as low as possible. But, I draw the line at reusing motor oil. I have 225k on my car now and hope to keep it going for a few more years. (Could not stand the thought of sending it to cash for clunkers.)

As our local weatherman like to say: "New data." This was in my inbox this morning, I can't find a link or way to display it without copy and paste:

New Research Report Indicates The Housing Market Recovery is Uncertain
Tuesday, September 08, 2009 - By Staff Writer, Originator Times

STUART, FL - A new research report issued by JC Powers Research Group indicates that the housing recovery is uncertain at best. The new report reveals that outsourcing and current mounting consumer debt may push off a housing recovery for years to come.

Some alarming statistics in the report include:

* Currently more than one fifth of all homeowners are currently upside down, or owe more money than their houses value
* Over $6.1 Trillion in equity has been lost since the housing downturn began
* The average American owes over $16,000 excluding mortgages.
* Nearly 20% of Americans debt servicing payments exceed 40% of their income
* Job losses are expected to continue to increase

The Originator Times has arranged for all subscribers to be able to view this important report for free by visiting: http://cantsleepatnight.info

Is JC Powers Research Group the same organization as JD Power & Associates? The former, I never heard of. The latter is a little more credible.

I don't know, Jim. When you click the link in the e-mail, you go here...

http://www.jcpowerresearch.com/research_videos/c2t_presentation.php?PHPSESSID=cc6e521186d1d2b78ff05eee2a770d47

I didn't watch the entire video, but it says JC Powers Research Group.

This is their home page. Let me know if you find out anything about them.

http://www.jcpowerresearch.com/

The e-mail came from a mortgage broker publication called Originator Times... that's where I looked for a link so I wouldn't have to copy and paste the whole thing, but I could not find one.

The recession is over...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/161845-capacity-s-comeback-strongly-indicates-recession-s-end?source=email

... but, not according to derryl:

Dear gawd, this report is absolutely worthless and if this is the way you think you can gauge the recession is "over," you have no idea what you are talking about.

It's all about the unemployment data (which is what I basically said on the AF Bubble Bursting thread).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/163553-welcome-to-the-new-normal?source=email

Bill S. Friend's comment pretty much sums it up...

Your projections actually seem optimistic, or in the best case scenario. Unemployment numbers like this reflect another set of data points that leave alot of room for upside. Residential and commercial real estate, dollar fluctuations, unfunded government liabilities, and energy fluctuations are also possible hamstrung oppurtunities, and I am sure there are more!

We won't see pent up demand for housing until we see pent up demand for employees.

FYI... I previously posted the anecdote my builder-friend from Florida said about two years ago... that it looks to him like it will take ten years to clean up the excess inventory. On my recent trip, I heard similar statements from no fewer than three Floridians. (And, I didn't spend the entire trip asking people "how long will it be.") The ten year thing seems to be an ingrained belief there.

Business is (and has) been picking up here significantly, however, MANY local lenders & large regional builders are talking "double dip recession."

What worries me is IF our lawmakers extend & expand the tax credit...it appears they'll sunset it April 30th. According to current plans--if they meet all the other criteria--homebuyers would still be eligible for the credit if they could close wihin 60 days of April 30th. The concern is that lawmakers appear unware the Fed plans to quit buying MBS's by March. Many feel the Fed's exit will result in interest rates rising to 6% or better. So interest rates would be climbing @ a time the tax credit is getting ready to expire. They (lawmakers) are either very confident the economy will be recovering enough that all this won't matter, or they're blistfully unware.

There is plenty of pent of demand out there, but it needs good paying jobs. The natives are getting restless as the jobs that haven't been outsourced are being gobbled up by companies like Microsoft who're insourcing. Combine that with Boeing opening up a 2nd production line in SoCarolina & this area will be losing another 3,800 jobs in the coming years. The children of the Baby Boomers are coming of age & they're projected to buy more homes between 2010-2020 than were purchased between 1995-2005, but they're going to need work.

It all hinges on jobs & all I'm seeing thusfar are extremely suspect numbers coming from The White House.

Mako wrote:They (lawmakers) are either very confident the economy will be recovering enough that all this won't matter, or they're blistfully unware.

Or, perhaps they know exactly what they are doing.

You almost sound like a crack addict, Mako.

The government should find an exit strategy for Fannie and Freddie, as well as for VA, FHA, etc. People should buy houses they can afford with financing available from people in the market for those services. Pain? Yes, there is horrible pain withdrawing from any addiction.