Appraisers' Free Forum

I'm always interested in data and predictions, but does any one have dose of salt?
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/10/rebound_shows

I think Yun forgot some things and labeled others incorrectly. Maybe his job is spinning.

“Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit,

There will probably be another surge in existing home sales after they foreclose on this bunch.

...could soon turn consistently positive and help the broad base of middle-class families, but we are not there yet,”

Care to cast or change your vote now?

http://appraisers.freeforums.org/how-long-will-it-be-please-vote-t4235.html?hilit=%20vote

We’re getting early indications of price stabilization...

http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/15132/Monthlyhpi_102209F.pdf

Look at the graphs... especially the one on housing prices from the high point....

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said affordability conditions remain historically high.

Yeah, if the bottom has been reached we are still bumping along there.

Steve Owen wrote:

Care to cast or change your vote now?[

Nope.

I have continued to glean information about the Main Street economy, which is what means something in my world and I still vote for the middle although this is far worse than I thought it was. This thing of exporting our jobs and indulgent consumption of imports is over. All that money from China that wiggled its way into the housing market is not coming back any time soon either. Instead of using the money China invested here to invest in productivity, we used it to buy flat screen TVs. Here we are with a bunch of people with lots of stuff who have lost their job and don't know how to do anything else.

"course we had some advice awhile back that was at least one proposed solution. GO SHOPPING AMERICA. I think what once was a reliable and plentiful stimulant for the economy has become increasingly rare fuel for the fire. Nothing wrong with shopping, but right now we need INVEST AMERICA.

Edd Gillespie wrote:

Steve Owen wrote:Instead of using the money China invested here to invest in productivity, we used it to buy flat screen TVs.

Can't argue with most of that. Opening China has allowed a lot of companies to make a lot of money... part of the reason the stock market is seeing green even while Main Street is seeing red. I knew a guy who worked for International Harvester and went to China shortly after Nixon (about 1980) as a sales rep. When we were selling them stuff it was really good, but now nothing on our shelves but 'made in China' labels.

I can't start to tell you the number of appraisals I did between six and ten years ago where the HO was cash out re-fi-ing to get the LTV back up to 95% and buy a new truck. I said then that Congress was causing a great problem by disallowing interest payments for ordinary debt as a tax deduction, but allowing deduction for housing debt. Result is, a lot of people borrowed on their home for toys so they could deduct (that plus all the advertising by mortgage brokers). Bottom line is that when house prices quit increasing a lot of ordinary people who were not really investors or speculators got caught with their pants down. My biggest problem with all of this is that now they expect those of us who were prudent to foot the bill.

More mixed messages...

http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate-news/ci_13626541?source=email

But...

http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate-news/ci_13601055?source=email

I understand that it is anathema to selling to be negative, but problems happen and the appraiser's job is to analyze and accurately report what is affecting the market. Those of us who are a part of real estate transaction for analysis purposes need to be alert to whether our sources of information are perspective neutral. In my book NAR's economist is not neutral and therefore disqualified as a source of reliable, factual information about what is happening in the real estate market.

The $8,000 tax credit was a shot of Meth. Of course there was a spurt of activity. And the follow on dose of Meth and crack will give a shot to activity through the winter. It will be hard to put down the crack pipe, but when we finally do, it will be obvious that the credit moved future sales forward, so there will be a dip. Plus, the government will forward the bill to us and our future generations for this sully interference in what was naturally being cleared up by the market adjusting prices.

They could have just let the market sink another $12,000 or so for those homes. That would have done the same trick & in fact, it was. The government program really helped investors dump REO at higher prices, on the tax payer's nickel. Spread the wealth around. The natural cure based upon bargain hunters, and they were the green shoots emerging, would have been much less costly to the tax payers. But, politicians can't pass up an opportunity to look the hero. Here's your crack, uh, I mean, credit.

The 8K rebate really made zero down possible, as long as a buyer could spare 8K temporarily (or have it "gifted") since the credit can be applied to '08 or '09 tax year. It isn't tough to file an amended '08 return & be out the down payment only for a couple months. Then, off to Best Buy for the 60" Sanyo or off to the carpet store.

Mentor wrote:It will be hard to put down the crack pipe, but when we finally do, it will be obvious that the credit moved future sales forward, so there will be a dip.

Exactly! Everything you said. The only way to avoid the future dip without another shot of crack is with actual, economically sound, activity... I don't see that happening.

This is still about jobs and trade. We have to figure out how to compete in world where billions of people are willing to work for a fraction of what it costs to live here with the result that our jobs have gone south, west and east. Anybody got an answer for that?

Edd Gillespie wrote:This is still about jobs and trade. We have to figure out how to compete in world where billions of people are willing to work for a fraction of what it costs to live here with the result that our jobs have gone south, west and east. Anybody got an answer for that?

Which jobs that went South, West and East that appeal to you?

I imagine appraisers whose jobs went to USA based AMC's via HVCC "cheese move and concentration of lending power agreement" are wondering if it is necessary to have anti-trade straw man arguments to explain reduced standards of living, let alone, reduced standards. This is about government interference and government actions that create uncertainty, concentrate power with the politically connected.

Where's that tort reform to go along with health care nationalization? You might get it with the government option, de-facto. Pretty tough to sue the government.

A more open international trade helped save our bacon and is helping keep inflation in check for now, while at the same time, giving a marginal boost to the living standards in 3rd World countries. A humanitarian liberal should be proud!

Thanks Roger,

As usual. I am at a loss to understand your contributions, but also as usual there are elements of political challenge in them. Surely you understand that something other than the government made lots of money available for the last go-round of mortgage excesses. Take time to read the labels on the stuff at the store to find out where it comes from. I doubt seriously you will find much "made in America", at least not a wide variety.

Incidentally, as for the jobs you and I do, I understand some AVMs are headquartered in India and that much of title work and loan processing is done there as well. We know local appraisers are becoming obsolete in the SFR mortgage market, won't be long before loan originators are too.

As long as you're not trying to figure out when the next shoe drops I guess that government interference stuff explains every thing you don't like. I am interested in what impacts the housing market and I know it ain't government meddling except for very short terms.

I am not interested in liberal and libertarian perspectives about the economy or any part of it. Besides, if government interference is the cause of all of our woes, it makes what you and I do hopeless.

I'm always interested in data and predictions

I am not interested in liberal and libertarian perspectives about the economy or any part of it. Besides, if government interference is the cause of all of our woes, it makes what you and I do hopeless.

I'd rather someone else take a stab at sorting this out.

Edd, are you still appraising? Commercial? REO? Do you do any mortgage work? If you don't want to disclose publicly, PM or email if you feel like it. I'm curious about local economic activity from Ft Collins to Colorado Springs.

I have relatives in CO and am interested in the local economy. They are mostly techie/yuppie but my sister and brother in law may relocate there soon. Who knows, maybe I can talk my wife into trading mountains for every day oceans (she has her eyes on Sarasota now) & join them.

You'd like my brother in law. He's a RE attorney turned appraiser (partial interests- for state govt-not in CO). Liberal weenie, but we get along well.

{Larry the NAR Guy}, NAR chief economist, said favorable conditions matched with a tax credit are boosting home sales. “Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to make a trade and buy another home,” he said. “We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery.”

Heck, Lawwy, why not just buy everyone a house? I mean this HB credit is a joke, 75,000 applicants are frauds including 50+ IRS Agents and a 4 year old boy.

We can generate a lot of economic activity with fraud. Lets build bridges that will fall down, houses that rot down in 10 years, let the builders keep the rest without prosecution. That's what we did with financials. The very people who created the mess are complaining the government is trying to cut back on their bonuses....bonuses either "earned" by taking enormous risks or having multi year profits that were no different from flipping a coin heads 4 times in a row. Random generated "genuises". These traders always "blow up" sooner or later. Let it be on someone elses nickel not ours. Hedge fund managers are frequently in the Forbes list of richest people...but none of their clients are ever there.

The fact is that dozens of large bank employees, perhaps hundreds need proscecuted for illegal trading, backdating and insider trading. No body seems to want to do anything about it. Look the other way. I don't understand. The SEC should rapidly be brought up from 1100 employees to 5000 or more and start chopping heads off. Otherwise, we don't even need it. Instead we make heros out of these rogues. When Henry Blodgett was a Dot.com stock analysts pushing the likes of WorldCom until the day it filed bankruptcy, did he go to jail? No. Fined a few million and banned from trading; and now he is a star reporter on Wall Street. He is writing about his old buddies. Do you think he is very critical of his old allies?

Blodget is president of Cherry Hill Research, an industry analysis and consulting firm, and is the Co-Founder, CEO, and Editor in Chief of Silicon Alley Insider, a blog about internet business trends and research. He is also a frequent contributor to the magazines Slate, Newsweek and New York. He also writes another blog at clusterstock.com.
Blodget began writing for Slate in January 2004, initially covering the Martha Stewart trials.

I don't know what Colorado's economy is doing but I know their tax office is desperately attempting to rob taxpayers. They sent us a bill for unpaid mineral production taxes...nevermind those taxes are taken out of the checks by the oil company. They get paid the month we do. Our family partnership got sent a nasty letter basically saying we owed $22,500 for 2006, 07, & 08....They claimed to have "Calculated" the tax. And it come out exact an even number, who woulda thunk it. In fact, they owe US $44. But we cannot get the tax back from 2007 and 2008 because they passed a law letting the state keep any overpayments. Isn't that a hoot. Every mineral owner has to file a tax return, even if the income is only $1. We will never owe a dime and the state gets their bucks the same month we get our money. By sending such an outrageous letter to mineral owners, the Soviet Socialist State of Colorado has shown its true Californicated roots....tax 'em to death. It is a form of economic terrorism to scare the unsophisticated elderly who own mineral rights. And if you have any income from minerals, no matter you are 80 and haven't had to file an income tax for decades, you gotta do it here at your own expense. Colorado government is sorry bastards is all I can say.

As for you appraisers, Colorado also whacks you if you didn't get your USPAP in time, and the fine is $400 PLUS A 10% SURCHARGE. great.

BTW, they poached the conservation fund [mineral owners pay a production severance tax, a conservation tax, AND ad valorem Taxes for royalties. If you make over a minimum amount, then the severance tax is increased] and placed that money in the general fund apparently. So millions collected from mineral owners that was supposed to clean up all that pollution and damage from oil production isn't being used for its stated purpose. And BTW, as most Coloradans know, the oil and gas industry has had some production/ pollution issues, notably around Adams Co. and near Parachute.

Why don't you tell us how your REALLY feel about the Colorado state government, Terry. ROFLMAO.

(I agree with every part of what you said.)

Mentor wrote:Edd, are you still appraising? Commercial? REO? Do you do any mortgage work? If you don't want to disclose publicly, PM or email if you feel like it. I'm curious about local economic activity from Ft Collins to Colorado Springs.

I have relatives in CO and am interested in the local economy. They are mostly techie/yuppie but my sister and brother in law may relocate there soon. Who knows, maybe I can talk my wife into trading mountains for every day oceans (she has her eyes on Sarasota now) & join them.

You'd like my brother in law. He's a RE attorney turned appraiser (partial interests- for state govt-not in CO). Liberal weenie, but we get along well.

Hey rogeryodamilt,

Sorry I didn't get back to you quicker, and no I don't mind being public with my thoughts. I am appraising and doing very little mortgage work, commercial or residential. I am abstaining in principle, which so far effects only my wallet and disposition. Some anxiety over my ability to pay the bills, and lots of peace over not shooting from the hip, dealing with aggressive dummies and trying to fit square pegs into round holes.

I limit my appraising area to southern Colorado which is what I know. I have appraised residential and commercial in Colorado Springs, but have to get local advise for that. Take me north of there and I'm a tourist when it comes to appraising real estate or review.

Incidentally, since I am struggling to understand the anger that is being expressed by the right on here and elsewhere and have never considered my opinions or Obama to be a threat to anyone, I took a political compass test to see where I fit, and I'm a left leaning libertarian, if that isn't a contradiction of the terms most us most of us think in.