http://www.housingwire.com/2008/06/10/f ... dium=email In a wide-ranging report on U.S. housing released Tuesday evening, Fitch Ratings said that its “forecast for the housing sector in 2008 has become more bearish,” pointing to a soft economy, very depressed consumer sentiment, and an unaccommodating mortgage market as key factors behind the latest bearish turn at the credit rating agency.
“The spring selling season was a ‘bust’,” Fitch analysts wrote in the report. “Although it does not appear likely that the year-over-year declines in major metrics such as starts, new home sales, and existing home sales will continue at the current pronounced pace throughout this year, the decreases are likely to be greater than Fitch’s prior projections.”
Fitch dropped its forecast for existing home sales to 4.835 million for 2008, 14.5 percent below year-ago recorded volume; the agency had previously forecast existing-home sales of 4.975 million. Projected housing starts also fell, with the agency saying it now expects just 0.96 million in 2008, after previously predicting starts of 1.06 million.
Saying that “operational and financial pressures will persist and, possibly, intensify for the public homebuilders during 2008 and into next year,” Fitch took a hack-saw to the ratings of more than a few major builders on Tuesday as a result of its updated expectations for housing. Centex Corp. (CTX: 13.96, -12.26%), Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM: 10.17, -7.55%), Lennar Corp. (LEN: 14.69, -6.19%), and D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI: 11.19, -8.05%) were among those that saw their core issuer default ratings cut, while some — notably, Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL: 19.13, -5.39%) — saw ratings affirmed with a negative outlook.<snip>
We could have told them - oh wait - we did say something early on.
