Appraisers' Free Forum

Mako wrote:This site is new (relatively speaking), but over on WBS the doomsdayers rule the roost. Their ominous posts outnumber optimistic ones 50:1. Try & say something hopeful or offer a constructive idea over there, and you're accused of "selling a real estate scaminar."

And... if you're Mike Simpson (his market was still up and increasing at last check, BTW) you get banned. And... if you're Mike from Chicago (forgot the name) you just get tired of it and go away.

Not that I think either Mike is a hero, FYI. In fact, I have taken both of them to task at various points when I didn't think they were right. But that doesn't mean I want to silence them.

I agree with most of what Ter has to say, Mako. The main problem with this discussion is that we're talking, at least partly, about future events. No one has a crystal ball.

Some of the nay-sayers in Wayne's World flat out stated that we would be in a full-fledged recession by 3rd Qtr '07. To quote Dana Carvey (as George Bush the 1st): Not gonna happen.

However, unlike many with a somewhat optimistic mind-set, I never doubted that we were in real trouble vis a vis the housing markets... particularly in certain locations. Also, I never doubted that those problems would roll into problems for the larger economy.

Still, you are right. Every time I tried to point out some stat that did not jive with the doom-and-gloomer's point of view I got dumped on. The main problem that so many of our fellow appraisers have is that the view housing as the be-all, end-all when it comes to economics. It is a big part of the puzzle, but still only a part.

3rd Qtr Recession? Looks to me like NW Arkansas may be on the way back up!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071113/earns_wal_mart.html

Steve Owen wrote:Some of the nay-sayers in Wayne's World flat out stated that we would be in a full-fledged recession by 3rd Qtr '07. To quote Dana Carvey (as George Bush the 1st): Not gonna happen.

Sounds like you want to avoid WBS if your name is Mike! The other guy was Neff by the way & I enjoyed reading his posts...too bad the Gloomy Gus' chased him off, but they've chased a lot of people off now haven't they.

As for myself...I've been around long enough & understand markets are constantly changing. I know there's going to be good & bad times...I've lived through enough of both. It's just that some of those bone heads over there NEVER see the glass half full...NEVER!

And now that many housing markets around the country are in trouble...the Prophets of Doom are probably telling everybody what geniuses they were for predicting this back in '02. Then again...home prices haven't fallen 50-80% from where they were in '04...like SOME over there predicted.

By the way...there's opportunity outside of WA State as well.

Mako, I couldn't agree with you more! I wonder if any of them have ever gone through a cycle before?? I remember when I started in real estate, we were ecstatic when rates dropped down to 10%. I learned a lot living through that time, and I think that I'll be okay this time around.

M L wrote:Mako, I couldn't agree with you more! I wonder if any of them have ever gone through a cycle before?? I remember when I started in real estate, we were ecstatic when rates dropped down to 10%. I learned a lot living through that time, and I think that I'll be okay this time around.

Ya know M L...I was hoping to kind of network with appraisers from around the country over on the other site. But for whatever reason things turned into a big poop pie throwing contest instead. I think the problem was I was on a different page than a buzz-saw on a mission and we eventually butted heads. I was looking for ways to make money using what I'd learned in appraising, and she was hell bent on busting bad guys. She was single-minded and wielded considerable power.

The ironic thing was I was being admonished for telling people they should invest in real estate. Turns out 2 out of the 3 that regularly bashed on me for "giving bad advice" DIDN'T EVEN OWN HOMES!!!

I get the feeling this site will be different though...there's a lot more tolerance here for differing viewpoints (hell that's why they started this site).

If the country does slide into recession...I'll be looking to make lemonade out of lemons. The Mrs. & I went to Whidbey Island yesterday to visit an old friend up from Vegas (arguably one of the hardest hit housing markets in the country recently). This guy's done quite well for himself investing in real estate over the past 10 years, and his net worth now exceeds 7 figures. He just flipped a house in Vegas in a month (even in this volatile market) and netted himself nearly $30k in the process.

Those are the kind of stories I enjoy. If there's a recession...so what all I wanna know is, "can I profit from it?"

I'd like to see more positive articles like, INVESTING IN REAL ESTATE USING A SELF-DIRECTED 401K" or "HOW TO INCREASE THE VALUE OF PROPERTY 40-45% BY TAKING IT THROUGH THE PRELIMINARY PLATTING PROCESS.

I have 45 pages of notes on the latter topic and I'll be done with my "PLAYBOOK' soon. I'll condense it down from there & maybe cut-n-past some of it here if anyone's interested.

Let the other site spar with each other if they like...we should exchange ideas & help each other profit over here instead.

Mako wrote:If the country does slide into recession...I'll be looking to make lemonade out of lemons.

One of my favorite statements on the AF site was one time when someone was talking doom and gloom and advising appraisers to be ready for the time when they didn't have any orders. I responded that, while it is generally good advice to be ready for hard times, I didn't really expect the dearth in sales to have much effect on my appraisal practice. Then, I said: When times are good I appraise sales and RELO's, when times are bad I appraise REO's... works for me either way.

Turns out 2 out of the 3 that regularly bashed on me for "giving bad advice" DIDN'T EVEN OWN HOMES!!!

Now that's funny as sheet! Three blind mice, three blind mice...

Some were born to do, some were born to teach, and some were born to tell you that the other two don't know what the hell they are doing or saying. I just try to ignore the noise, but it is really hard "over there". The doom and gloom is just TOO much! I was on another site last night, not the AF, and someone was professing that the market in Atlanta is horrible. Even the metro area is bad, and the water situation doesn't help. I asked if they were in Atl. No, they are in Phoenix, but have friends who lost their house, and another can't sell. I just said... sorry to hear that, but I've done quite well lately. Bought 3 this month and sold 2. Made more this month than I did all last quarter appraising. That helps when you have been working for the past 2 years to dig out of a bad business decision. But, getting out of the residential end and going full speed into remodeling was the best decision.... everything is paid off, and we are now getting ready to cut dirt on our new lake house from the capital gains.

M L wrote:Bought 3 this month and sold 2. Made more this month than I did all last quarter appraising. That helps when you have been working for the past 2 years to dig out of a bad business decision. But, getting out of the residential end and going full speed into remodeling was the best decision.... everything is paid off, and we are now getting ready to cut dirt on our new lake house from the capital gains.

Now THERE's something worth reading! I love success stories...we all should...gives us hope for future achievement!!!

By the way...I should have taken your advice on hiring people to do the trees...I broke my hand rather severely more than a year ago & it's still giving me fits!

Mako wrote:By the way...I should have taken your advice on hiring people to do the trees...I broke my hand rather severely more than a year ago & it's still giving me fits!

OOOOuch! Sorry to hear about that. I'm telling you man, I no longer do a darn thing that can't be hired out. I no longer get on ladders, handle major power tools, painting, and don't even clean out my own gutters anymore. 1. My time is better spent looking for ways to make more $$$$ so that I can pay my guys and keep them busy. 2. I'm older, fatter, and can no longer tolerate a fall from the roof edge cleaning gutters. 3. Iif the fall didn't kill me, my wife would! Because, she has no interest in running the business.

OMG....no truer words....

Iif the fall didn't kill me, my wife would! Because, she has no interest in running the business.

TB

However, today's news has something that is different than what I've seen before. It makes me think that recession might be possible in the 2nd or 3rd Quarter of 2008.

Since there was growth in the second quarter, you'll have to shoot for the third.

Looks like there might be growth in the 3rd as well... maybe the 4th, but definitely not 3Q 2007, as predicted on the Housing Bubble is Bursting thread.